Vaping Panic is Costing Lives - Why Aren’t We Talking About Smoking?

I’d like you to think back over the last year.

When was the last time you saw a story about the harms of smoking, the last advert warning about the dangers of cigarettes?

I’ve seen stories of parents encouraging children to switch from vaping to smoking, stories which haven’t been contradicted by stop-smoking professionals, but I have seen almost nothing on the harms of smoking.

In contrast, there have been:

• hundreds of negative stories on vaping
• misinformation reaching policymakers
• government moves that will hammer vaping rates
• millions of pounds funnelled to anti-vaping groups
• increasing rumours of Big Tobacco companies influencing politicians on vaping policy *

Vaping’s not perfect. It’s addictive, and it is likely to carry some harm.

That’s why, when the UK originally came up with its goals to make the country Smoke Free by 2030, it thought vaping would play a key role.

But as vaping declines, what’s going to happen to the UK’s smokers?

The current state of smoking

As vaping rose in popularity, smoking saw a massive decline.

In 2011, just as vaping began to gain momentum, 20.2% of adults smoked.

Yet we still have 6 million daily smokers in the UK.

Estimates of early deaths for long-term smokers vary from one-third to half. That means 2 - 3 million people dying before their time because they smoke.

The risk very much affects older smokers - most sources estimate that if you stop smoking by the age of 35, over time your body will completely remove all damage from smoking.

What’s more, many people do manage to quit smoking before this period, with quit rates dropping off after the age of 40.

So the generational ban on smoking that is being introduced by the government (progressively increasing the age at which it is legal to smoke) will have little positive health impact for several decades.

The problem with demonising vaping

Vaping has played a role in falling smoking rates.

The UK government estimated that in one year alone 50,000 people quit smoking because of vaping. Quit rates with vaping can be as high as 59.7% - or up to 75% when combined with other strategies.

Action on Smoking and Health data reiterates this point, stating that more than half of ex-smokers quit using an electronic cigarette.

There’s one other area that affects smoking rates: the people who would have tried smoking but tried vaping instead - choosing a habit that is both less addictive and vastly less harmful.

We don’t know how many, as this area is under-researched. (It’s hard to get funding for research which might show vaping in a positive light.)

But just because we haven’t quantified something doesn’t mean that it isn’t important. And it seems very feasible that the sort of risk-takers who will try vaping now are the same cohort who would have tried smoking in the past.

Why aren’t more smokers trying vaping?

I’ve spent a lot of time reading vaping studies, attending conferences and interviewing scientists.

If I hadn’t, and simply read the news and followed stories on social media, I’d be pretty convinced that vaping is no better than smoking, and avoid it like the plague.

And that certainly is what seems to be happening.

If smokers believe vaping is no better than smoking - or even that it is worse for them than smoking - why on earth would they want to try it? **

This was reinforced to me recently by a chat with two smokers.

Both were educated people who sought out reputable sources of information, and both had been considering switching to vaping. But after reading yet another negative story that vaping was as bad or worse than smoking, they couldn’t see the point.

It’s going to get worse

The number of people who are worried about the harms of vaping is increasing every year and, as the government unleashes attack after attack on vaping, it’s likely to get worse.

Let’s recap just some of what is either in motion or being discussed:

• a ban on disposable vapes
• giving the power to ministers
  • to ban flavours
  • bring in plain packaging
  • ban displays in shops
• the potential to restrict where people can vape
• a huge tax on e-liquid, wrongly based on the assumption that a 10ml e-liquid bottle is equivalent to 100 cigarettes
• a tax stamp system that will further increase the cost of producing e-liquids and force many producers out of business, reducing competition
• claims in the Houses of Parliament that vaping devices are not suitable for smoking cessation.

That’s combined with a steady torrent of misinformation which has even reached Westminster.

What’s going to happen to smoking rates?

Trends are hard to predict, and with smoking data not yet out for 2025 we can’t be sure where it is heading.

(Nor can we know where smoking rates would be now if smokers were continued to be provided with accurate information on the relative harms of vaping versus smoking.)

As usual, though, some clues come from the last E-Cigarette Summit.

Prof Jamie Brown found a huge rise in non-daily UK smoking rates. When you bring this into account, smoking rates in the UK are 16.5% - far higher than other sources show.

Jamie went on to say:

Harmful misconceptions about vaping are holding people back. We must prioritise targeted campaigns to dispel myths and encourage full transitions away from smoking…The 'last mile' of tobacco control is proving more complex than we anticipated.

If there are restrictions on e-liquid flavours, things could get much worse, with Dr Jasmine Khouja of the University of Bristol estimating:

• a potential 381,102 vapers relapsing into smoking
• 460,200 smokers not switching to vaping
• other young vapers switching to dangerous, illegal vape products

Final thoughts

It’s right that politicians are concerned about youth vaping.

However, the evidence is clear - smoking is still a problem and we need a balanced, nuanced approach towards smoking and vaping that deters non-smokers from vaping while encouraging smokers to switch to the less harmful alternative.

For example, a crackdown on the source of the youth vaping problem - illegal vapes and unscrupulous sellers - could put a real dent in youth smoking without deterring adult smokers from switching to vaping.

And in all of this, let’s not forget the fact that smoking is far worse than vaping. In terms of net harm, we need 20 vapers to quit for every smoker who relapses or doesn’t take up vaping.

I think the issue is beautifully highlighted in this graph by Clive Bates:

As he went on to say:

If smoking is 20 times as dangerous as vaping you can't just say, 'Well, we've saved a bit of vaping, we've caused a bit more smoking.The net harm is enormous.

Notes

Philip Morris Ltd is of the view that the focus of regulation should be on allowing flavours which are predominantly appealing to adult smokers (such as mint, menthol and tobacco) and can help them switch, with the use of any additional flavours undergoing stringent scrutiny to guard against unintended use…

Before going on to quote the company directly.

See Welsh Parliament Health and Social Care Committee Report on the Legislative Consent Memorandum for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, February 2025, paragraph 82 on page 20.

In addition, I’ve also heard of politicians meeting with tobacco lobbyists, although they may not always know the people they are meeting work directly or indirectly for the tobacco industry.

Why so many people who currently smoke have not completely transitioned to e-cigarettes or other products is not answered by this paper. However, we do know that most people who smoke believe ecigarettes are as harmful or more harmful than smoking cigarettes. These perceptions may dissuade people from fully quitting smoking, and it is plausible, though not known, that this may extend to other non-combustible products. That is, a fear of the unknown harms is keeping people smoking. Helping people who smoke to make fully informed choices should be a policy priority in England as the UK works toward the smokefree 2030 target.

See: Cox, S., Jackson, S. E., Brown, J., Kale, D., & Shahab, L. (2025). Trends in single and multiple non-combustible nicotine product use: A population study in England. Nicotine & Tobacco Research. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntaf048

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